Fantasy Football: Players I am High On

"Calvin Johnson is injury prone and has a QB who can't stay healthy...One of the two is going to screw you over in the playoffs because they get hurt.  Also Cedric Benson is overrated and isn't even a starter worthy running back in fantasy."

For context, this quote was from a conversation I had during trade discussions at the beginning of the 2011 football season.  Now, the arguments for both players above were popular ones at the time, but the season ended with Calvin Johnson being the number 1 WR by a large margin and Benson being the number 16 RB, easily a starting caliber RB in fantasy.  Of course, hindsight is 20/20.  But what this shows, is that the most popular opinions or the general consensus on a player is not always right.  So what I decided to do this year, is come up with my players who I think should be going higher in drafts and lower in drafts.  Also I am including a sleeper portion, which are players that are either being drafted in the late rounds or are going undrafted.

Highs

QB-Matthew Stafford: Stafford's stats the last two years: 10,005 yds, 61 TDs.  Some QB's going above him: Matt Ryan: 8,896 yds, 61 TDs; Peyton Manning: 9,359 yds, 70 TDs; Aaron Rodgers: 8,938 yds, 84 TDs.  Stafford is on par number-wise with all those QBs yet is going 2-3 rounds later in most drafts. Stafford may have to pass the ball almost every down to get those numbers but that doesn't matter in fantasy.  Also he is throwing the ball to fricking Megatron, which in itself should make him a top QB.

RB-Maurice Jones-Drew: Two years ago he led the NFL in rushing yards with 1606 while compiling 11 total TDs.  After dealing with lingering injury problems all last year, he is healthy again in an offense that improved throughout the season last year.  MJD should be a top 10 RB this year yet is being drafted after the likes of Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson, and Steven Ridley.  I know RBs deteriorate faster than any other position but MJD was only a full time starter for 3 years before he got hurt.  He should have some mileage left in him.  He also is more valuable in PPR leagues.

RB-Reggie Bush: We know two things about the Lions offense.  They have not had a solid RB since Barry Sanders and they throw the ball A LOT.  Last year, Lions RBs (including Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell) combined for 129 receptions.  How they did that, no one will ever know.  But with Bush in the picture now, fresh off of two 1000 yard rushing seasons, I am expecting 1800 combined rushing and receiving yards and about 80 receptions.  He will be a top 15 RB and a top 10 in PPR leagues yet is being drafted as the 20th-25th RB taken.  Way too low if you ask me.  Plus Stafford has to throw the ball to someone other than Megatron once in a while.

WR-Wes Welker: Guess who had the most receptions out of the slot last year...Wes Welker.  And who targeted the slot receiver the most out of any QB...Peyton Manning.  Mr. Manning meet your new teammate Mr. Welker.  Welker finished last year as the number 6 WR yet is being drafted outside the top 10 WR.  I have no reason to believe that he will do any worse than last year as he continues to get the targets and receptions in Denver that he got in New England.  In fact, I have him pegged as a top 5 WR as long as Peyton continues to defy nature and perform at his ridiculously consistent pace.

WR-Dwayne Bowe: Bowe has always been a fantasy WR who got his numbers by always being behind in games. The fact is that how you get your numbers doesn't matter.  Bowe has had Matt Cassel and Brodie Croyle throwing to him his whole career along with a never-ending cycle of coaches and coordinators.  For the first time, he has a consistent QB in Alex Smith and a coach who knows how to run a passing offense in Andy Reid.  And everyone knows that Andy Reid loves to throw the ball.  To me that puts Bowe as a dangerous WR who is likely to crack 1000 yards and put up at least 8 TDs which would put him as a top 12 WR instead of being outside the top 20.

TE-Jermichael Finley: So as I mentioned in this blog earlier, I am a Packers fan.  That means that I may be biased when it comes to Finley but please, hear me out.  Two years ago, he was a top 5 TE in fantasy.  After a down year last year, he is in the last year of his contract and needs a big year in order to get a good deal on the market and I do not know if there is a bigger motivator than money.  Also, with the departure of Jennings and the retirement of Driver, the Packers are not as deep at WR as they have been in the past.  This makes Finley all the more valuable to the passing game.  Rodgers has also been singing his praises all training camp so I feel he is a starter worthy TE this year yet he is not being drafted as one.

So these are the players I am high on.  In the coming days, I will be doing the players that I am low on along with my sleeper list.  Any comments or opinions on the players I mentioned are welcomed and I hope that my predictions on these players are right.  Or else my fantasy teams may not turn out so well this year.