Fantasy Football: Players that I am Low On

So yesterday I did my players that I was higher on than the average person.  Today I will be going over some players that I feel are being drafted and rated higher than I think that they should be.  This does not mean that I will not draft these players if the opportunity arises.  It means that I would have to draft them lower than where they are going in most drafts.  So without further ado:

QB-Colin Kaepernick: Admittedly, if you took Kaepernick's numbers from last year and prorated them out over a full year, you would have a top 10 QB.  But there are a number of factors that make me think that he will not put up the numbers that he did last year.  First of all, rushing TD's for QBs are a volatile number that fluctuates year to year with no rhyme or reason.  So I do not expect him to put up the TDs he did last year.  Also, with Crabtree out for the year, all Kaepernick has to throw to is Kyle Williams, Boldin, and Davis.  Davis and him never had chemistry last year while Williams only had 200 yds receiving.  Boldin had 900 yds last year but is another year older and does not have the surrounding personnel that he did in Baltimore.  All of this points toward a declining year for CK.

RB-Doug Martin: Since Arian Foster's injury woes, Martin has been the popular choice for the 2nd or 3rd pick in most drafts.  I feel like this is too high for two big reasons.  One is the health of his offensive line as he has already lost one starting guard for the year and had one tackle leave in free agency.  The second reason is his inconsistent performance last year.  His one week against Oakland resulted in over 50 fantasy points which was about 20 percent of his total last year and he does not play Oakland this year.  If you take away that one week, he would have been outside the top 10 in RBs last year.  Though I expect him to improve, I do not foresee a top 5 RB performance from him.

RB-Jamaal Charles: Charles is another RB that is going 2nd and 3rd overall that I feel should be going in the end of the first round or beginning of the second.  The obvious concern is the injuries that he has sustained.  The knee injury that he suffered last year combined with the nagging injuries that he has battled during training camp make him a huge gamble.  Also, the fact that Andy Reid comes into the fold with his pass happy west coast offense that does not like running the ball in short yardage situations, makes Charles a vast unknown.  This is especially the case since he has not shown in his career the ability to catch the ball consistently out of the backfield which is a must have for RBs in Reid's system.

WR-Andre Johnson: He is in a run heavy offense, that always runs in the redzone.  Owen Daniels is Schaub's favorite target on the goal line when they are passing as well.  The emergence of DeAndre Hopkins has also added an additional target for Schaub to utilize.  All of these factors make Johnson a less desirable fantasy target then some of the safer bets that are going behind him in drafts such as: Fitzgerald, Colston, Cruz, and Wayne.  Do not draft him as a top 10 WR.

WR-James Jones: Now here is a case of where my Packers loyalty is not keeping me from disliking a certain player.  Jones has long been a fantasy WR that is dependent on TDs and TDs from year to year are very hard to predict.  So when looking at a receiver who has never had more than 800 yds receiving and has averaged 550 yds a season in his career, I do not see someone who should be getting drafted as a top 20 WR.  Stick with someone who is not so TD dependent like Jordy Nelson who is actually going later in most drafts.

TE-Vernon Davis: There is really only one stat that needs to be mentioned when discussing the fantasy value of Davis.  With Kaepernick under center, Davis totaled 144 YDs and 1 TD in 6 games.  Even before that Davis was on pace to have one of his worst years in the league.  The reports of Davis lining up out wide as a WR do not endorse the idea of better numbers as Davis has proven that mismatches with LBs or safeties are the root of his numbers.  He is definitely not worth a top 5 TE pick.

So these are the players that I feel are being way overvalued.  In the coming days, I will be doing a post on the sleepers for this year.  I hope these posts can help anyone doing drafts in the last weekend before the NFL season starts.

Fantasy Football: Players I am High On

"Calvin Johnson is injury prone and has a QB who can't stay healthy...One of the two is going to screw you over in the playoffs because they get hurt.  Also Cedric Benson is overrated and isn't even a starter worthy running back in fantasy."

For context, this quote was from a conversation I had during trade discussions at the beginning of the 2011 football season.  Now, the arguments for both players above were popular ones at the time, but the season ended with Calvin Johnson being the number 1 WR by a large margin and Benson being the number 16 RB, easily a starting caliber RB in fantasy.  Of course, hindsight is 20/20.  But what this shows, is that the most popular opinions or the general consensus on a player is not always right.  So what I decided to do this year, is come up with my players who I think should be going higher in drafts and lower in drafts.  Also I am including a sleeper portion, which are players that are either being drafted in the late rounds or are going undrafted.

Highs

QB-Matthew Stafford: Stafford's stats the last two years: 10,005 yds, 61 TDs.  Some QB's going above him: Matt Ryan: 8,896 yds, 61 TDs; Peyton Manning: 9,359 yds, 70 TDs; Aaron Rodgers: 8,938 yds, 84 TDs.  Stafford is on par number-wise with all those QBs yet is going 2-3 rounds later in most drafts. Stafford may have to pass the ball almost every down to get those numbers but that doesn't matter in fantasy.  Also he is throwing the ball to fricking Megatron, which in itself should make him a top QB.

RB-Maurice Jones-Drew: Two years ago he led the NFL in rushing yards with 1606 while compiling 11 total TDs.  After dealing with lingering injury problems all last year, he is healthy again in an offense that improved throughout the season last year.  MJD should be a top 10 RB this year yet is being drafted after the likes of Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson, and Steven Ridley.  I know RBs deteriorate faster than any other position but MJD was only a full time starter for 3 years before he got hurt.  He should have some mileage left in him.  He also is more valuable in PPR leagues.

RB-Reggie Bush: We know two things about the Lions offense.  They have not had a solid RB since Barry Sanders and they throw the ball A LOT.  Last year, Lions RBs (including Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell) combined for 129 receptions.  How they did that, no one will ever know.  But with Bush in the picture now, fresh off of two 1000 yard rushing seasons, I am expecting 1800 combined rushing and receiving yards and about 80 receptions.  He will be a top 15 RB and a top 10 in PPR leagues yet is being drafted as the 20th-25th RB taken.  Way too low if you ask me.  Plus Stafford has to throw the ball to someone other than Megatron once in a while.

WR-Wes Welker: Guess who had the most receptions out of the slot last year...Wes Welker.  And who targeted the slot receiver the most out of any QB...Peyton Manning.  Mr. Manning meet your new teammate Mr. Welker.  Welker finished last year as the number 6 WR yet is being drafted outside the top 10 WR.  I have no reason to believe that he will do any worse than last year as he continues to get the targets and receptions in Denver that he got in New England.  In fact, I have him pegged as a top 5 WR as long as Peyton continues to defy nature and perform at his ridiculously consistent pace.

WR-Dwayne Bowe: Bowe has always been a fantasy WR who got his numbers by always being behind in games. The fact is that how you get your numbers doesn't matter.  Bowe has had Matt Cassel and Brodie Croyle throwing to him his whole career along with a never-ending cycle of coaches and coordinators.  For the first time, he has a consistent QB in Alex Smith and a coach who knows how to run a passing offense in Andy Reid.  And everyone knows that Andy Reid loves to throw the ball.  To me that puts Bowe as a dangerous WR who is likely to crack 1000 yards and put up at least 8 TDs which would put him as a top 12 WR instead of being outside the top 20.

TE-Jermichael Finley: So as I mentioned in this blog earlier, I am a Packers fan.  That means that I may be biased when it comes to Finley but please, hear me out.  Two years ago, he was a top 5 TE in fantasy.  After a down year last year, he is in the last year of his contract and needs a big year in order to get a good deal on the market and I do not know if there is a bigger motivator than money.  Also, with the departure of Jennings and the retirement of Driver, the Packers are not as deep at WR as they have been in the past.  This makes Finley all the more valuable to the passing game.  Rodgers has also been singing his praises all training camp so I feel he is a starter worthy TE this year yet he is not being drafted as one.

So these are the players I am high on.  In the coming days, I will be doing the players that I am low on along with my sleeper list.  Any comments or opinions on the players I mentioned are welcomed and I hope that my predictions on these players are right.  Or else my fantasy teams may not turn out so well this year.

NCAA Football Video Games

Since I am a huge fan of sports, and also a big fan of video games, it stands to reason that I am a gigantic fan of sports video games.  One of my favorites that I have played for years is NCAA Football.  I was always a fan of taking one of the worst teams in the game (usually teams in Division 1 for the first time), and trying to play and recruit well enough to make them a powerhouse team.  Last year, I did it with UTSA, the year before Akron, and the year before that Eastern Michigan.  I have yet to get the newest installment in the game but when I do Old Dominion will be my project team to try and take to the National Championship.

Unfortunately for EA Sports (the developers of the game), the NCAA has pulled its support of the franchise because of the lawsuits leveled against both parties by former college basketball player Ed O'Bannon.  The lawsuit states that both the NCAA and EA has profited from using likenesses of college athletes for years.  Anyone who has played a college oriented video game knows that no player names are used in the original game.  All players are represented by their jersey number and nothing else.  But if you look at a roster of a team like Michigan, you will see number 16 in the game has very similar height and weight and the same home state as Devin Gardner.  This is where the problem lies for EA and the NCAA in regards to the lawsuit.

Also, in recent installments, EA has offered the Roster Sharing option which allows fans of the game to "create" their own roster using names, likenesses, numbers, etc.  This is where you see exact replicas of college football players.  This is just compounding the problems for the NCAA and EA because exact likenesses are being used in the game in some way, shape, or form.

Because NCAA has pulled its support of the game, EA can no longer use the NCAA logo and name.  Despite that, EA Sports has already announced that it will be releasing a college football game next year.  The reason that they can still do this is because the NCAA is not the organization that controls the schools logos, uniforms, etc or the trophies, awards, and bowls.  As a result, EA has pushed forward with the development of the game and can still use almost all of the real life aspects of college football.  That is unless some repercussions come down on them as a result of the O'Bannon lawsuit.

As a video game fan and a fan of the series, I really hope that the series can continue and be as well made and successful as it has been in the past.  Whether it be via the players getting some sort of monetary reimbursement for the use of their likeness, or by EA winning the lawsuit, I hope to continue playing this wonderful game and being able to play as real life college players and not just numbers or made up names.

Shout out to Ichiro

Last night, Ichiro got his 4,000 hit as a professional baseball player.  Some people would argue that because he played in Japan for 9 years, the 4,000 hit milestone is meaningless.  That looks true at first until you actually look at the numbers.  In Japan, Ichiro had his 1,278 hits in nine seasons of 130 games.  That comes out to 1.09 hits per game in Japan.  In the MLB, Ichiro had his 2,722 hits in 13 seasons of 162 games which comes out to 1.29 hits per game.  If Ichiro had played all of his 21 seasons in the MLB, and played at the 1.29 hits per game pace, he would have about 4,388 hits.  That number is more than 100 hits above the record held by Pete Rose.  Now, there is no proof that Ichiro would have sustained the same hit rate that he has now, but the fact that he played at a higher level in the MLB than he did in Japan shows that he deserves all the praise and recognition that he is getting for his milestone.

He has become only the 3rd player in history to hit the 4,000 hit milestone, along with Ty Cobb and Pete Rose.  Thats pretty damn good company if you ask me.  He is also considered the consummate professional who plays the game the "right" way.  And has the added bonus of never being mentioned as a PED user while playing during the height of PEDs in baseball.  He is hands down a Hall of Famer, and it is just a matter of whether or not he gets in on the first ballot.  Great job Ichiro, and I am proud you are a Yankee.

The Johnny Manziel Conundrum

So as most people have heard non-stop on ESPN and other sports stations, Johnny Manziel allegedly did the big no-no and got paid for his autograph on certain sports related merchandise.  This has been just one occurrence in the never ending debate on whether or not student athletes should be allowed to be paid in any shape or form while in college.  Every year another star player gets brought up and accused of receiving benefits while in college, from Terrelle Pryor to Cam Newton to Reggie Bush to Chris Webber.  All got in trouble for some sort of wrong doing in the eyes of the NCAA and their respective institutions got the brunt of the punishment.  The question remains whether or not college athletes should be allowed to make money off their name in college.

In the case of Manziel, he allegedly got paid to sign autographs.  At first glance, this may seem like a big violation in people's eyes.  My question is why?  Everyone knows the argument that college football players make so much money for their school in some cases, that they should get a cut of it.  And everyone knows the counterargument to that, which is they get a free ride to a prestigious college so they don't need to get anything more out of the deal.  I am not going to get into the semantics of these two arguments because then we would be here all day while I went back and forth.  So I am going to look at in a different light.

I am going to frame my argument in two scenarios.  Person A gets a free ride to University of Texas and graduates in four years with a BA in engineering.  While in college, he freelances for an IT company and gets paid to do so.  He also gets free computer equipment for helping out on the side as a perk of the job.  Person B gets a free ride to Texas Tech and graduates in four years with a BA in Sports Management.  While in college, he is the QB on the football team and does promotional events for the school.  On the side he gets paid to sign a few autographs and gets a free computer for signing a picture.  The difference between the two people is that Person B loses his scholarship and his ability to play football strictly because he is a student-athlete.  When I look at these two students, I see absolutely no difference.  Both are students who got full scholarships to school and both got paid for services rendered and even got a couple perks because of the skills they possess.  Yet because one student is an athlete he gets hammered by the NCAA and is stripped of the ability to do what he does best.  Why is it that every student has the ability to use their skills while in college to make as much extra money as they can, except for athletes, who cannot use their "fame," so to speak, as a means to make money?

This is just one perspective and one argument on a much larger issue.  Some players that I mentioned above, like Reggie Bush, took perks and money from a USC booster as "bribes" to go to the school.  That is something that should not be allowed.  But a player like Manziel, who gets paid to sign autographs, or Pryor, who signed a jersey for a free tattoo, should not be thrown to the dogs by the NCAA strictly for trying to make cash on the side...it's no different than the average college student working while in school.

BS Sports

So I love sports.  Now most guys and some women out there would say the same thing as they sit on the couch watching the game, outside with there children kicking around the soccer ball, or playing in a  rec league of some sort.  But for me it goes beyond that.  From the time I was allowed to go downstairs and watch TV by myself every morning, I watched Sportscenter first thing in the morning, every morning.  And I mean EVERY morning.  I played baseball, football, and basketball as a kid and even got into soccer in college.  To this day I still play pickup games and even venture into golf, volleyball, and any other sport that comes along.  I religiously play fantasy sports and watch my favorite teams in every sport.  I care about sports more than a lot of things in life, which in itself may be pretty sad, but hey, I can live with that.  Which is why I am starting this blog.  It is something for me to talk about and give my opinion on stuff that is happening in sports.  Also it keeps my girlfriend from having to listen to me talk about stuff that she absolutely does not care about.  So here is a little info about my interest in sports:

First of all, my favorite teams make no sense.  I grew up in the middle of Pennsylvania and I am a Yankees, Packers, and Magic fan.  Yeah, like I said, it makes no sense.  But this is how it came to be.  My first Sports Illustrated for Kids magazine had Penny Hardaway on the front.  It was my very first poster in my room and from that day I liked the Orlando Magic.  Why? Because I thought Penny was a cool name along with the name Magic.  Remember I am like 7 at this point.  From there, I got a poster of Derek Jeter given to me and again I thought the Yankees had a cool name (starting to see the trend?).  Finally football season came around and the Packers vs. Lions were the very first game I saw.  Now my dad was a Lions fan so obviously I rooted for the team against them and I thought the Packers again had a cool name.  As a 7 year old, I had NO IDEA what a Yankee or a Packer was.  And like I said above, my favorite teams really do make no sense.

I am also a big fan of college basketball and football (of course).  I root for both Michigan football and basketball.  Don't ask me why I took after my dad for these teams because I have absolutely no idea.  I also graduated from George Mason University so of course I root for my Patriots in basketball (we don't even have a football team).  I was proud to go to the FIRST mid-major to make it to the final four in recent years...screw VCU.  Yeah I hate them almost as much as the Red Sox.

So hopefully anyone who reads this blog enjoys what I have to say and I look forward to rambling about my favorite thing in the world: sports.