So yesterday I did my players that I was higher on than the average person. Today I will be going over some players that I feel are being drafted and rated higher than I think that they should be. This does not mean that I will not draft these players if the opportunity arises. It means that I would have to draft them lower than where they are going in most drafts. So without further ado:
QB-Colin Kaepernick: Admittedly, if you took Kaepernick's numbers from last year and prorated them out over a full year, you would have a top 10 QB. But there are a number of factors that make me think that he will not put up the numbers that he did last year. First of all, rushing TD's for QBs are a volatile number that fluctuates year to year with no rhyme or reason. So I do not expect him to put up the TDs he did last year. Also, with Crabtree out for the year, all Kaepernick has to throw to is Kyle Williams, Boldin, and Davis. Davis and him never had chemistry last year while Williams only had 200 yds receiving. Boldin had 900 yds last year but is another year older and does not have the surrounding personnel that he did in Baltimore. All of this points toward a declining year for CK.
RB-Doug Martin: Since Arian Foster's injury woes, Martin has been the popular choice for the 2nd or 3rd pick in most drafts. I feel like this is too high for two big reasons. One is the health of his offensive line as he has already lost one starting guard for the year and had one tackle leave in free agency. The second reason is his inconsistent performance last year. His one week against Oakland resulted in over 50 fantasy points which was about 20 percent of his total last year and he does not play Oakland this year. If you take away that one week, he would have been outside the top 10 in RBs last year. Though I expect him to improve, I do not foresee a top 5 RB performance from him.
RB-Jamaal Charles: Charles is another RB that is going 2nd and 3rd overall that I feel should be going in the end of the first round or beginning of the second. The obvious concern is the injuries that he has sustained. The knee injury that he suffered last year combined with the nagging injuries that he has battled during training camp make him a huge gamble. Also, the fact that Andy Reid comes into the fold with his pass happy west coast offense that does not like running the ball in short yardage situations, makes Charles a vast unknown. This is especially the case since he has not shown in his career the ability to catch the ball consistently out of the backfield which is a must have for RBs in Reid's system.
WR-Andre Johnson: He is in a run heavy offense, that always runs in the redzone. Owen Daniels is Schaub's favorite target on the goal line when they are passing as well. The emergence of DeAndre Hopkins has also added an additional target for Schaub to utilize. All of these factors make Johnson a less desirable fantasy target then some of the safer bets that are going behind him in drafts such as: Fitzgerald, Colston, Cruz, and Wayne. Do not draft him as a top 10 WR.
WR-James Jones: Now here is a case of where my Packers loyalty is not keeping me from disliking a certain player. Jones has long been a fantasy WR that is dependent on TDs and TDs from year to year are very hard to predict. So when looking at a receiver who has never had more than 800 yds receiving and has averaged 550 yds a season in his career, I do not see someone who should be getting drafted as a top 20 WR. Stick with someone who is not so TD dependent like Jordy Nelson who is actually going later in most drafts.
TE-Vernon Davis: There is really only one stat that needs to be mentioned when discussing the fantasy value of Davis. With Kaepernick under center, Davis totaled 144 YDs and 1 TD in 6 games. Even before that Davis was on pace to have one of his worst years in the league. The reports of Davis lining up out wide as a WR do not endorse the idea of better numbers as Davis has proven that mismatches with LBs or safeties are the root of his numbers. He is definitely not worth a top 5 TE pick.
So these are the players that I feel are being way overvalued. In the coming days, I will be doing a post on the sleepers for this year. I hope these posts can help anyone doing drafts in the last weekend before the NFL season starts.
QB-Colin Kaepernick: Admittedly, if you took Kaepernick's numbers from last year and prorated them out over a full year, you would have a top 10 QB. But there are a number of factors that make me think that he will not put up the numbers that he did last year. First of all, rushing TD's for QBs are a volatile number that fluctuates year to year with no rhyme or reason. So I do not expect him to put up the TDs he did last year. Also, with Crabtree out for the year, all Kaepernick has to throw to is Kyle Williams, Boldin, and Davis. Davis and him never had chemistry last year while Williams only had 200 yds receiving. Boldin had 900 yds last year but is another year older and does not have the surrounding personnel that he did in Baltimore. All of this points toward a declining year for CK.
RB-Doug Martin: Since Arian Foster's injury woes, Martin has been the popular choice for the 2nd or 3rd pick in most drafts. I feel like this is too high for two big reasons. One is the health of his offensive line as he has already lost one starting guard for the year and had one tackle leave in free agency. The second reason is his inconsistent performance last year. His one week against Oakland resulted in over 50 fantasy points which was about 20 percent of his total last year and he does not play Oakland this year. If you take away that one week, he would have been outside the top 10 in RBs last year. Though I expect him to improve, I do not foresee a top 5 RB performance from him.
WR-Andre Johnson: He is in a run heavy offense, that always runs in the redzone. Owen Daniels is Schaub's favorite target on the goal line when they are passing as well. The emergence of DeAndre Hopkins has also added an additional target for Schaub to utilize. All of these factors make Johnson a less desirable fantasy target then some of the safer bets that are going behind him in drafts such as: Fitzgerald, Colston, Cruz, and Wayne. Do not draft him as a top 10 WR.WR-James Jones: Now here is a case of where my Packers loyalty is not keeping me from disliking a certain player. Jones has long been a fantasy WR that is dependent on TDs and TDs from year to year are very hard to predict. So when looking at a receiver who has never had more than 800 yds receiving and has averaged 550 yds a season in his career, I do not see someone who should be getting drafted as a top 20 WR. Stick with someone who is not so TD dependent like Jordy Nelson who is actually going later in most drafts.
TE-Vernon Davis: There is really only one stat that needs to be mentioned when discussing the fantasy value of Davis. With Kaepernick under center, Davis totaled 144 YDs and 1 TD in 6 games. Even before that Davis was on pace to have one of his worst years in the league. The reports of Davis lining up out wide as a WR do not endorse the idea of better numbers as Davis has proven that mismatches with LBs or safeties are the root of his numbers. He is definitely not worth a top 5 TE pick.So these are the players that I feel are being way overvalued. In the coming days, I will be doing a post on the sleepers for this year. I hope these posts can help anyone doing drafts in the last weekend before the NFL season starts.
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